Quick answer: Climate change threatens coffee because coffee plants need a narrow range of temperature and rainfall. Rising heat, droughts and erratic rain cut yields and quality, and one peer-reviewed study projects that the global area suitable for growing coffee could shrink by about 50% across emission scenarios. Small farmers are hit hardest, and prices and quality are likely to suffer.
Most of the world’s coffee is grown by small farmers in the tropics, and the crop is unusually sensitive to its climate. Here is how a warming climate affects arabica and robusta, what the research says, and what farmers are doing about it.
In this guide 7 sections
How does climate change affect coffee growing?
Coffee plants need specific growing conditions to produce good beans, and temperature and rainfall are among the most important. Hotter seasons, longer droughts and heavier bursts of rain make farming harder, especially for small farms that can’t afford irrigation or other adaptations.
A study of global coffee production by Bunn et al., 2015, Climatic Change projected that climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50% across emission scenarios, with the biggest losses at low latitudes and low altitudes. It flagged Brazil and Vietnam, the two largest producers, as likely to lose substantial suitable area.
How does climate change affect arabica coffee?
Arabica is native to tropical highlands where temperature and rainfall historically varied little, so it is particularly sensitive to change. High temperatures during flowering, which often coincide with droughts or dry seasons, can cause flowers to abort and reduce the harvest. Lack of water during the growing season also lowers the quality of the fruit, even when the plant itself survives.
As suitable land at lower elevations shrinks, arabica farming tends to move uphill, where there is less land available. Don’t be surprised if high-quality arabica keeps getting more expensive.
Is robusta coffee more resistant to climate change?
Robusta is native to lowland forests in Central Africa and has long been considered the hardier, more heat-tolerant species. Research suggests it is less robust than assumed: Kath et al., 2020, Global Change Biology, using ten years of yield data from almost 800 farms in Southeast Asia, found that robusta yields peak at a mean temperature below 20.5°C and fall by roughly 14% for each 1°C of warming above its optimal range.
Which coffee-growing regions are most at risk?
Each growing region will be affected differently, but the picture is broadly the same: less reliable rain in key growing months, more extreme weather, and higher temperatures pushing suitable land uphill or out of production.
Central America (Guatemala)
Coffee farmers in Central America are exposed to drought in dry years and to hurricanes and heavy storms that can destroy crops. Most farms grow arabica, which suffers most from heat and water stress.
Brazil
Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, and the Bunn et al. study identifies it as one of the countries likely to lose substantial area suitable for coffee. Because Brazil supplies so much of the world’s coffee, a poor harvest there affects prices everywhere.
Vietnam
Vietnam grows mainly robusta in its Central Highlands. Higher temperatures threaten robusta yields more than once thought (Kath et al.), and dry-season irrigation puts pressure on rivers and groundwater.
What does climate change mean for coffee drinkers?
Lower and less reliable harvests affect the whole supply chain, and drinkers have already felt it: after a severe drought in Brazil, arabica prices climbed to record highs in late 2024, as NPR reported. Expect continued upward pressure on prices and less high-quality, gourmet coffee available, especially from origins prized for their high-altitude arabica such as Colombian coffee. To taste the differences between origins while you still can, see our guide to coffee beans from around the world. Coffee’s wild gene pool is at risk too: Davis et al., 2019, Science Advances found that about 60% of the world’s 124 known wild coffee species are threatened with extinction, which matters because wild species carry traits breeders may need to develop more resilient plants.
How are farmers adapting?
Common strategies include growing coffee under shade trees, which cools plants and stores carbon; planting more heat- and drought-tolerant varieties; improving soil and water management; and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions from coffee production. Many of these require money and training that small farmers don’t have, so support from buyers and roasters matters. Technology helps here too; see how modern technology is changing the coffee industry.
Frequently asked questions
Will coffee become extinct because of climate change?
Coffee is not about to disappear, but research projects a large loss of suitable growing area, around 50% across emission scenarios in one global study. That points to lower supply, higher prices and coffee growing shifting to new, often higher, locations.
Why is coffee so sensitive to climate?
Coffee plants need a narrow range of temperature and rainfall. Heat during flowering can cause flowers to abort, drought reduces bean quality, and robusta yields fall as temperatures rise above their optimal range.
Which is more affected, arabica or robusta?
Arabica has long been considered the more sensitive species because it evolved in stable highland climates. Recent research shows robusta is also more heat-sensitive than previously believed, so both are at risk.
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